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web/.agents/skills/caveman-evidence-review/SKILL.md

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+---
+name: caveman-evidence-review
+description: >
+  Review Caveman Cloud evidence read-only: costs, Cave Score, Cave Plan,
+  workflows, traces, latency, errors, compression, routing, and verified
+  savings. Use when the user asks what Caveman found, where LLM spend goes,
+  why cost or quality changed, which workflows need attention, or asks for a
+  trace or analytics review. Prefer Caveman MCP tools; fall back to CLI JSON.
+---
+
+# Review Caveman evidence
+
+Act as a read-only operator. Build conclusions from current Caveman data, not
+from repository guesses. Never start, approve, cancel, or roll back an
+experiment from this skill.
+
+## Hard rules
+
+1. Keep these buckets separate:
+   - measured provider-complete list-price cost;
+   - `inferred` daily headroom;
+   - `verified` ledger savings;
+   - evidence cost.
+   Never add or relabel them.
+2. Do not fetch prompt, completion, tool, or artifact payloads unless the user
+   explicitly asks for payload review. Metadata, spans, timing, models, token
+   counts, status, and optimizer attribution are enough for the default review.
+3. Scope every read to the project selected by Caveman context. Never supply an
+   organization id.
+4. Empty results are evidence of no current signal, not zero cost or zero risk.
+5. Cite trace ids and exact time windows used. Do not claim a cause from an
+   aggregate alone.
+
+## Step 1 — Load context
+
+Prefer MCP:
+
+```text
+caveman_context {}
+```
+
+CLI fallback:
+
+```bash
+caveman cloud whoami
+caveman cloud projects list
+```
+
+Stop if login or project selection is missing. Ask the user to run
+`caveman login` or select a project; never guess.
+
+## Step 2 — Establish baseline
+
+Use `caveman_report` for:
+
+- `overview`
+- `costs`
+- `score`
+- `workflows`
+- `verified_savings`
+
+Then use `caveman_plan` for ranked daily headroom. If question is narrow, skip
+unrelated reports. Read shortest set that can answer it.
+
+CLI fallback:
+
+```bash
+caveman cloud costs
+caveman cloud score
+caveman cloud plan --json
+```
+
+State report window and basis before interpreting direction.
+
+## Step 3 — Test the leading explanation with traces
+
+Use `caveman_trace_search`. Choose a bounded window and closed filters:
+workflow, agent, model, provider, error code, runtime mode, cache status,
+optimization id, status class, token/cost/latency bounds, compression, or
+monitor verdict.
+
+Useful groupings:
+
+- `workflow` — find jobs driving cost or failures;
+- `model` — compare model mix;
+- `session` — isolate retry or loop behavior;
+- ungrouped — identify exact traces.
+
+Compare a suspect cohort with a control cohort or earlier bounded window.
+Do not infer causality from one expensive trace.
+
+CLI fallback:
+
+```bash
+caveman cloud traces search \
+  --workflow <slug> \
+  --from <RFC3339> \
+  --to <RFC3339> \
+  --sort total_cost_usd \
+  --dir desc \
+  --limit 25
+```
+
+## Step 4 — Inspect representative traces
+
+Call `caveman_trace_get` for a small number of high-signal trace ids. Inspect
+request and span metadata, latency, status, token counts, cache state, applied
+optimizers, and model route. Keep payload retrieval off.
+
+CLI fallback:
+
+```bash
+caveman cloud traces show <trace-id> --spans
+```
+
+## Step 5 — Report
+
+Use this shape:
+
+```text
+## Caveman evidence review
+
+Scope: <project> · <from> to <to>
+Measured cost: <value and basis>
+Verified savings: <ledger value, kept separate>
+Inferred headroom: <per-day band, kept separate>
+
+Findings:
+1. <finding> — <aggregate evidence> — traces <ids>
+2. <finding> — <aggregate evidence> — traces <ids>
+
+Unproven:
+- <plausible explanation lacking a control, trace, or eval>
+
+Next read-only check:
+- <one bounded query>
+
+Possible action:
+- <proposal only; use caveman-manage for read-only lifecycle review and safety gate>
+```
+
+If data is missing, name missing signal and stop at strongest supported
+statement. Never turn a catalog subtotal into an invoice or an experiment result
+into verified savings.